New Stats, New Turnout, New Show
Sarah Gorman, City Clerk Services Manager, has just released new numbers in the vote count (Friday, Nov. 10) and, although the numbers won’t be (all rise) certified for a month, it's clear that turnout broke 50 percent:
--- Several thousand additional ballots, which were postmarked but not received by Election Day, were retrieved from the Postal Service. Turnout is now listed at 50.7 percent, exceeding the 49.5 percent of the last non-incumbent mayor’s race. Hooray.
--- A comparison of the Newsmakers Poll, which showed 40 percent of likely voters undecided when we published it two weeks before the election, and current results, reveal that a) those who hadn’t made up their minds then overwhelmingly were Democrats, as we projected at the time; b) the undecideds split fairly evenly among Cathy, Angel and Hal; c) Hotchkiss was peaking at the time of the poll;
Candidate NM poll % Current Vote % Undecideds % Won
Hotchkiss 19 20.7 1.7
Murillo 16 28.4 12.4
Conklin 10 20.2 10.2
Martinez 9 19.7 10.7
White 6 11 5
Undecided 40 ----- ------
--- Perhaps the most astonishing single number in the results is that Jim Scafide won a mere 12.6 percent in the District 4 council race, despite carrying the Democratic endorsement, along with that several other key party groups, as sister Dem Kristen Sneddon dominated; even more amazing - his current share of the vote is less than the 15.3 percent won by Aaron Solis – who raised and spent no money, didn't campaign and was at Wrigley Field for the Dodgers clinching of the National League pennant the night of the Newsmakers district forum. Oy.
Laura, Dale, Kelsey and Josh chop it up. We recorded a new show on Thursday night that Hap has just posted.
Dale noodled out some intriguing numbers that showed Hal had the most momentum at the end of the campaign, winning the largest chunk of votes among those that came in on Election Day (we predict Hal will bypass Angel for the bronze medal by the final count (Toldja! -Ed.); Josh made an argument that, if Santa Barbara still had an at-large council election system, both Sneddon and Jay Higgins, who competed in the 4th, would have been elected; Laura led a loud chorus of hosannas for Kristen as the outstanding candidate of the election; and Kelsey, our Senior Marijuana Legalization Correspondent, reported on the city’s effort to find a bank to handle pot revenue, amid the rear-guard action of Attorney General Jeff Sessions to treat weed as a clear and present danger to the Republic.
P.S. Newsmakers TV will be off until Dec. 1, but is set to return with a one-on-one exit interview with Mayor Helene Schneider, reflecting on her term and the results of the election.
Images: Elections chief Sarah Gorman (Linked In); (l-r) Kelsey Brugger; Laura Capps; Jerry Roberts; Dale Francisco; Josh Molina on set of Newsmakers TV at TVSB studio.
(Updated 15:40 PST to reflect latest vote count and posting of new show).