Newsmakers with JR
Inside New Citywide & District Ballot Returns
If not another ballot is received, voter turnout in the Nov. 7 election would be 27 percent, Sarah Gorman, City Clerk Services Manager, told Newsmakers. But there are plenty more on the way.
About 13,000 ballots had been received and processed by the clerk’s office at close of business Thursday. Gorman declined to offer a forecast for final turnout in the all-mail election, but she did so in a nice way.
As of late Wednesday, the partisan breakdown reported by Political Data Inc. (does not include Thursday’s ballots):
Ballots to date % ballots to date Citywide voters Citywide %
Total: 11,486 ------ 48,527 23.6
Dem: 6118 ` 53.2 25,676 52.9
Rep: 2804 24,5 8,665 17.8
Other: 2564 22.3 14,186 29.1
So: Republicans are voting heavily, at this point, accounting for one of every four ballots cast, compared to their less than one-in-five citywide registration level.
Democrats are voting in almost exactly equal measure as their share of overall city registration.
Decline to state and third party voters appear less interested in the election so far than voters of the two parties. Or maybe they’re still undecided and waiting until the last minute:
Here are the partisan breakdowns of ballots received by city council district:
Thots: Party may be less important than potholes in district races than in citywide balloting.
That said, the Democratic-endorsed Jim Scafide, locked in a battle for the hearts and minds of San Roque libs, can’t feel swell at seeing voters from his party accounting for less than half (47.4 percent) of ballots cast to date.
Ex-Republican and current DTS Jay Higgins, long the third man in discussions of the race, quietly has become the betting favorite among the cognoscenti, in part because GOP ballots represent a relatively high portion (28.5 per cent) of votes cast to date. Sneddon backers, however, believe a fair number of Republican votes will come her way; sharing the surname, as the daughter-in-law, of the late, longtime District Attorney Tom Sneddon, can’t hurt. If that’s true, and she can pull independents with her crossover appeal, it may be a long night. Scafide needs juice.
Hmm: Hard to read much into the numbers in the bromance battle of the generations in the 5th between Dems Eric Friedman, who got the party endorsement, and Warner McGrew. Speculation: Eric likely has an edge among D’s, if only because of party organization ((Mollie Culver in the house!) but conservative voters who remember Warner as fire chief, and like his style, likely lean his way.
Blinding insight: The networks will all call the 6th for Gregg Hart seconds after the polls close.
In other news: Hap produced a new Newsmakers panel show tonight.
We played, and dissected, the weird 15-second attack ad against Cathy.
Josh forecast it will backfire and help her; Laura said that in walking precincts for Kristen she's found many people have not yet sent their ballots because they’re still trying to decide for mayor.
Dale recalled that when Helene won the 2009 mayor’s race , he and then-Chamber president Steve Cushman split the center-right vote, and he finds it amusing that Democrats are the ones with the fractured base this time around. Kelsey discussed her interview with Hannah Beth about the extraordinary open letter, signed by 130 women who've worked in the Capitol and describing the joint as a workplace wall-to-wall with sexual harassment.
Then we all riffed on whether the Harvey Weinstein scandal, and the big name, jaw-dropping revelations that now seem a daily occurrence, marks a genuine turning point in gender equality.
The show should be online tomorrow, will advise.
Image: Dale, Josh, Kelsey and Laura looking forward to going on set momentarily, while Jerry wonders if he'll be able to speak after all the pizza and leftover Halloween candy he just ate (Hap Freund photo).
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