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Election '20: Key Data Points in Race to Dump Trump


In 17 days, the first ballots will be cast in the pivotal election to decide if Donald Trump’s narcissistic nihilism wins a second term.


On February 3 in Iowa, a collection of overwhelmingly white Democrats, a group numbering about one-third the population of Santa Barbara County, will vote for preferred party nominees and begin to shape the campaign narrative leading to the momentous November 3 election.


Here is a selection of some benchmark stats to help make sense of the race amid the blizzard of bewildering media coverage to come.




The Incumbent


0: Percentage of change to Trump’s “favorable” rating since his historic impeachment in the House in November, according to a Morning Consult survey of 161,591 registered voters, which showed unwavering support from 43 percent of the electorate as of January 1.


-1: Percentage of change to Trump’s “unfavorable” rating since impeachment, down one point, to 53 percent, since impeachment; his net -10 point favorable/unfavorable rating (43-to-53 percent) was his strongest in the Morning Consult poll in 2019.


15,413: Number of false or misleading claims Trump made in the first 1,055 days of his administration, according to the Washington Post’s “Fact Checker” last month.



The Challengers


4: Number of Democratic contenders who have led Iowa’s bellwether Des Moines Register poll to date. After Joe Biden, Elizabeth Warren, and Pete Buttigieg previously led, Bernie Sanders now is ahead, with all four within the margin of error.


60: Percent of Iowa Democrats who told the Register polltakers they remain undecided.


48: Percent of African-American voters who favor Biden for president, in a national survey of 1,088 black Democrats by the Post and Ipsos Research, with Sanders at 20, Warren at 9 and Buttigieg at 2 percent.



The Money


150 million: Total dollars presidential candidates, including Trump, spent on advertising in December 2019, according to data released by Advertising Analytics.


50 million: Total dollars all presidential candidates spent on advertising in Dec. 2015, one month before last election year.


102.7 million: Trump campaign cash on hand at end of 2019.





The Billionaire Boys


22 million:  Number of dollars Silicon Valley investor Tom Steyer spent on advertising in South Carolina and Nevada, in a successful bid to goose his polling numbers in those two states sufficiently to qualify for this week’s Democratic debate.


13,000: Dollars that Biden has spent on advertising in South Carolina and Nevada to date.


211 million: And counting, the number of dollars former New York mayor Mike Bloomberg, who is skipping Iowa and three other early state primaries or caucuses, has spent advertising in California and other large “Super Tuesday” primary states that vote on March 3.


1 billion: Total amount of money Bloomberg has vowed to defeat Trump in 2020, regardless of who wins the Democratic nomination.



The Media


11.3 million: Total numbers of viewers who tuned in to one of the cable news networks ​— ​Fox, CNN or MSNBC ​— ​to watch the House vote on impeachment.


5 million: The portion of the total number of cable news viewers who watched the proceedings on Fox’s Tucker Carlson Tonight.



The Voters


58: Percent of Democrats who told Pew Research poll it is more important for a Democratic president to compromise with Republicans, even at the cost of giving up some things Democrats really want ​— ​compared to 41 percent who favored pushing for Democratic policies even if it’s harder to get things done.


45: Percent of Republicans who said it is more important for Trump to find common ground, compared to 53 percent who said he should push for GOP policies, regardless if less gets accomplished.


17: Percentage of Republicans who say that the Democratic Party has “a lot” or “some” good ideas,” according to Pew.


13: Percentage of Democrats who say this about Republicans.


73: Percent of all voters (77% of Republicans and 72% of Democrats) ​— ​who say that people registered with the two parties “not only disagree over plans and policies, but also cannot agree on the basic facts,” according to Pew Research.


JR


A version of this post appears in this week's print edition of the Santa Barbara Independent and on independent.com. Please join us in supporting local journalism through a $29.99 online subscription to the Indy.


Images: Donald the Joker (Daily Kos); Hair Boy (Calbuzz); Biden & Bernie (CNBC); Cash (ebay.com); Steyer & Bloomberg (breitbart.com); Tucker (nationalmemo.com); Friend of Newsmakers (memegenerator.net).

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