Search Results

(Editor's note: We first ran this story back in September, at the beginning of the campaign. In the ensuing six weeks, we've expended 87 gazillion words chronicling the ups and downs of the five candidates for mayor. One week before the Nov. 7 election/mail ballot counting seemed an apt time to recollect the real-life stakes in the race. With many voters apparently still undecided, Newsmakers respectfully urges you not to throw up your hands and forego voting. This feels like one of those elections in which every vote will matter). A feminist prelude. Section 504 of Santa Barbara’s City Charter defines the office, duties and powers of its Mayor. There are two critical points worth noting within its 201 words: “He shall be the official head of the city for ceremonial purposes,” reads one clause of the 1967 charter section, using the male gender pronoun that pops up five times in six sentences. This in a town where women have held the mayor’s office for 35 of the last 36 years. “Reading this section gave me a curious feeling,” former Mayor Sheila Lodge recalled, archly. Some actual facts. The second item about the office of mayor is even more noteworthy: the gig comes with not much overt power. In our weak mayor system, the City Administrator runs things day-to-day (ever mindful, of course, of the mayor and council’s prerogative to fire him. Or, who knows, someday, maybe her). Here is a complete list of the SB’s mayor’s charter-mandated duties: Preside over City Council meetings. Cast her own vote - but no veto power. “Official head of the City for all ceremonial purposes." “Primary but not exclusive responsibility for interpreting the policies, programs and needs of the city government to the people." ”May inform the people of any change in policy or program.” “Does anybody really believe that the day-to-day life of the average person in Santa Barbara is dependent on who is elected mayor?” Bill Clausen, a prolific presence on local comment boards and social media, groused over at an interesting discussion on the Indy’s site one day last week. "Dependent?" No. "Impacted, influenced and changed?" Yes, yes and yes. What’s at stake. The 2017 municipal election may be the most consequential in years for three key reasons: the state of the economy, the cacophony of conflict over housing policy, and seismic shifts in political power. At a time when the city’s political landscape and demographics are changing dramatically, the next mayor and council face huge challenges in shaping and ensuring the stability of the local economy for the next several decades. “It actually matters more who’s Mayor now than before district elections,” said Ken Oplinger, president and CEO of the (all rise) Chamber of the Santa Barbara Region (which endorsed Angel Martinez in the mayor’s race). “The mayor is the only elected official who represents the city as a whole, setting aside petty inner-district issues for what is going to benefit our community in general.” As a practical matter, anyone who uses or pays for streets, roads, police officers, firefighters, public schools, parks, water or indoor plumbing has a direct stake in the outcome of the campaign. From Amazon to Uber, technology has undermined and sapped a retail business model that has helped sustain Santa Barbara since Paseo Nuevo was constructed in the 1980s, through decades when La Cumbre Plaza's now failing anchor tenants Sears and Macy’s (aka. J. W. Robinson’s) actually thrived. The Funk Zone may represent a small, if happy and charming, business success story, but the city still struggles with a retrograde and short-sighted approach to the fast-advancing sharing economy, and managing the local impact of global economic change. Ban Airbnb! Next up: City Hall declares Sundowner winds illegal. Gimme shelter. The astonishing cost of housing, here and throughout coastal California, restricts the ability of local businesses to recruit employees, while forcing long commutes on nurses, first responders, teachers, students and tourist industry service workers, among others in a priced-out middle class. Santa Barbara’s endless and intractable debate about housing – how much to build, for how much and where to put it, while preserving cherished neighborhoods and venerated architectural character - is a simmering stew of rights and responsibilities in conflict. A raft of legislation just passed in Sacramento to mandate thousands of new units of “affordable” housing is certain to bring new complications, and new passion, to the discussion. None of this is to mention other far-reaching issues: Trump-inflamed disquiet over race and immigration; the city treasury’s $250 million in unfunded pension liability; a disputed proposed sales tax increase on the ballot, or a backlog of public works maintenance and infrastructure improvement projects. For starters. Hyper-local idiosyncrasies. Come January, the new mayor will be the only official elected across the whole city; the other six council members all will have been chosen by districts, slivers of adjoining neighborhoods with roughly 14,000 residents each (the number of registered voters varies widely). Mayor Helene Schneider and her council colleagues got squeezed into changing the city’s longtime at-large election system into a six-district arrangement back in 2015, under threat of litigation, owing to the stark underrepresentation of Latinos in city government (a problem that this year’s three district contests won’t improve a whit). Every district council member doubtless will delight to tell you that she or he, naturally, has the best interests of the entire city at heart. It’s a plain, cold political fact, however, that each one of the six also will be besieged by hyper-local and idiosyncratic demands and needs that increasingly will infuse debate at City Hall – precisely at a time when Santa Barbara urgently needs to move forward based on communitarian, not parochial, values. The meeting will come to order. The next mayor should possess, not only policy knowledge, but also the political and collaborative skills necessary to shape consensus in identifying crucial priorities for the future. A big dollop of leadership to help craft a strategy and tactics for achieving these goals wouldn’t hurt, either. The challenges start with the mayor’s first charter-mandated duty: presiding over council meetings. It’s a deceptively simple assignment, in an historic town with more contending interests, red tape, rules, regulations, policies, procedures , NIMBY neighbors and bureaucratic protocols to be found anywhere outside the sovereign nation of Italy. “Most importantly the mayor needs to know how to run a meeting.” said Oplinger of the Chamber of Commerce. “In a city as process-driven as Santa Barbara is, the person with the gavel needs to be able to conduct a meeting in a way that is both efficient and inclusive, a skill few possess.” A brief Helene interlude. Incumbent Mayor Schneider, who’s backing Bendy White, has 177 well-chosen words to underscore the importance of this subject: “Running the meeting doesn’t just happen. It takes focus and it takes work." "I think people who’ve been in office before, especially in city government, know how the process works; you try to walk that tightrope. But if you haven’t been part of the process, it’s going to be an eye opener.” “You try to listen to what everyone else is saying and, if there’s a difference of opinion on an issue, then try to consolidate the thought and come up with a suggestion or a motion that will pass. “You can lead the discussion that way, and you have to do it in a way that's respectful, even if you might disagree with the members on the issue. You’re still one of seven votes, so if you want to try to push an argument one particular way, or win an argument one particular way, you have that role to play. But at the end of the day, I find that the mayor’s really the person who tries to get something to happen. And setting that tone’s important." Bottom line. Beyond council chairing, the charter’s loosely drawn duties for the mayor (see above, numbers 4 & 5, especially) in fact offer plenty of running room for a smart, ambitious, energetic politician, with strong communication skills and the public interest at heart, to exercise strong leadership. “Because the role of the mayor carries with it a certain aura, the mayor can use her position to lead and educate the community, to successfully advocate for what is best for the city as a whole,” former Mayor Lodge told me. “When I was first elected mayor I was surprised to find that people thought this gave me a lot more power, although I still had just one vote and no veto power,” she added. “This belief in effect gave me power.” So there’s that. JR Email tips to newsmakerswithjr@gmail.com or comment on our stories on our Facebook page - SB City Desk. Thanks for reading. Images: Former Mayor Sheila Lodge (Paul Wellman, SB Independent); Ken Oplinger, SB Chamber of Commerce; Cartoon people arguing; Map of Santa Barbara City Council districts; Mayor Helene Schneider (Paul Wellman, SB Independent); Seal of the City of Santa Barbara.

At your convenience, between now and the Nov. 7 election, you can watch the only debate of the Santa Barbara mayor’s race produced for live television, thanks to the miracles of technology and the commitment to community of KEYT-TV. Just click through to their website here. Full disclosure: our Santa Barbara Bureau Chief was on the panel of journalists invited to question the five candidates throughout the forum Witnessing a debate unfold as a participant on the set, up close and personal, sitting 20 feet from the candidates, is a qualitatively different experience than watching it aired or live streamed on a screen, whether handheld or super-wide. Beyond the behind-the-scenes turmoil of lights, cameras, time clocks and other technical paraphernalia that is invisible to the audience, a reporter’s active engagement in the debate process also brings into play the basic laws of quantum physics, i.e. the presence of an observer changes the nature of the observed. So it’s a fool’s errand to try to produce a detached and disinterested debate analysis from that vantage point in the peanut gallery. For that reason we forego our usual. post-debate report card review of each candidate’s performance, in favor of some broader, if more subjective, observations on the winners and losers of the last debate. POLITICAL VALUES Winner: Chicanery, Campaign operative kudos to David Pritchett, lapsed Santa Barbara resident and ex-husband of Democratic machine candidate Cathy Murillo, who hacked KEYT’s viewer question selection procedure, and successfully planted a softball for his former bride that asked each of the candidates to discuss their personal wealth and ability to relate to regular folks. Murillo’s four male rivals, who range from very comfortable to wonderfully rich, awkwardly put on their best poor mouth faces (Angel Martinez did the best job here, by far, acknowledging his considerable wealth in the context of his American Dream narrative that began with abject poverty in the Bronx) while Cathy recited an overt appeal to renters and working stiffs by announcing that she lives solely on her council salary ($49,882.50 total pay in 2016, $74,914.36 with benefits). Loser: Candor. In her humblebrag response to Pritchett's question, which sounded suspiciously rehearsed, Cathy neglected to mention that she used to be married to the guy. In asking the question, moderator Beth Farnsworth announced his name, which also appeared on the screen, but Murillo never acknowledged that she knew, let alone once was wed to, the inquisitive viewer who posed the income question Two reporters on the set nearly fell off their chairs when they heard the questioner identified as Pritchett, an indefatigable campaign troll, who faithfully boosts Cathy throughout the social media universe. A Monday morning KEYT news report on the debate that acknowledged David’s monkeyshines reported that Cathy said she knows nothin’about any planted question. SCIENCE VS. OPINION Winner: Actual Facts. Newsmakers threw a cantankerous high hard one at conservative front-runner Frank Hotchkiss, seeking to become the first climate science-denying mayor of the birthplace of the environmental movement: “That humans are causing global warming is the position of the Academies of Science from 80 countries and about 95 percent of active climate scientists endorse that view. Why do you disagree with that consensus position and what is the scientific basis of your position?” You could look it up. Loser: Alternative Facts. “Your numbers are way off, first off," Hotchkiss began his response to that question, factually incorrectly. In alleging that humans play an inconsequential part in shaping climate, Hotchkiss revealed the scientific source of his stance was something he’d read recently in the local morning newspaper. Sorry Frank, “I read it in the paper,” doesn’t quite rise to the level of, evidence. INSTITUTIONAL MEMORY Winner: Back Story. Several candidates struggled to answer a simple question about how large a population Santa Barbara (pop. 91,930) can sustain, in balancing its size, scale, specialness and resource carrying capacity against calls to build many more dwellings and units amid a much-proclaimed “housing crisis.” Hal Conklin was the only candidate who displayed a depth of knowledge and familiarity with this historic controversy – in the not-so-distant past, citizens twice have voted on the question of capping the city’s population – and he concluded a thoughtful and coherent summary of the matter by saying Santa Barbara should only grow by a few thousand more people, at most. Runner-up honors in this category to Bendy White, who smartly broke down a question from Noozhawk’s Tom Bolton about the city’s unfunded pension liability; Bendy explained the city’s fairly limited power over the pension problem, properly tracing it back to the sweetheart pension policies enshrined throughout the state by ex-Governor Gray Davis on behalf of union allies back in the halcyon ‘90s. Loser: Winging It. Although housing has been the dominant issue discussed throughout the campaign, several candidates struggled to explain the implications of their positions. Murillo began her answer to the population question by reciting her stump speech on housing, but when pressed, eventually offered the thought that the city should grow enough to accommodate tens of thousands of workers who commute from Ventura every day; Angel said it was impossible to answer because Santa Barbara lacks a true economic development plan, damn City Hall; White, the self-proclaimed man in the middle, used trademark finesse to avoid a clear answer. Hotchkiss had the clearest response: the city is pretty well “built out” already, he said. PUBLIC DISPOSITION Winner: Sunniness. Although Frank descended into get-off-my-lawn grumpy mode after being challenged on climate change, he had a strong start to his debate. Addressing a more diverse audience than the Fox News fans to which he aims his paid advertising, Hollywood Hotchkiss positioned himself as a unifier, exuding Reagenesque optimism as he soft-peddled his homeless crackdown policy and bubbled with good cheer about the natural wonders of Santa Barbara. Murillo, who was statistically tied with Frank in the recent Newsmakers Poll, also put on a clinic of happiness, maintaining a smiley face throughout the evening that played against her vexatious City Hall reputation. No matter how calculated, it was a good look for both of them, at least from 20 feet away. Loser: Darkness. Oddly, Martinez began his opening statement by recalling a pre-campaign meeting with political consultant Jeremy Lindaman, which we reported here, in which he was warned to stay out of the race because it wasn’t his turn. For a man with such an uplifting rags-to-riches personal narrative, the insider tale seemed too small a way to introduce himself to many voters who still don’t know much about him. Angel’s closing statement included his familiar refrain of “don’t vote for me” if you like things the way they are; it was the right positioning for a change vs. status quo candidate, but the language was too choleric and the tone too gloomy by half. LATE INNINGS Winner: KEYT. Santa Barbara’s only local news operation went all-out on their election project, presenting a full hour of genuine political discourse without commercial interruption while arranging online and on-the-air replays of the event through Election Day and offering reported profiles of the candidates on their site. For whatever reason, many voters seem to be struggling with a decision on the mayor’s race, and KEYT deserves plaudits for offering its viewers important information in the final days of a long campaign. Loser. Kenley Jansen. The Dodgers closer was magnificent all season, with only one blown save, but he’d matched that number in the World Series, even before he coughed up Game 5 in the 10th inning Sunday night, walking off as the losing pitcher several hours after the debate. Jansen is no doubt tired at this point, but aren’t we all. He needs to suck it up and get back to lights out form before the young and hungry Houston club spoils L.A.’s dream season. Prediction: Dodgers in 7. Don’t forget to vote. JR Images: Winner and loser; David Pritchett, running for city council in 2009 (Paul Wellman, Independent); Cathy Murillo; Frank Hotchkiss; Hal Conklin; Bendy White; Angel Martinez; Kenley Jansen (mlb.com). Email us news tips at newsmakerswithjr@gmail.com or comment on our stories on our Facebook page - SB City Desk. Thanks for reading.

Update. Well it’s finally settled: in the debate over whether to watch World Series Game 5 or the Santa Barbara mayor’s race debate, Giants fans were better off watching the game while Dodgers fans probably should have stuck to the debate. Houston 13, Dodgers 12. Ouch. El Lay partisans who missed the only televised event of the campaign (which, astonishingly, ended two hours and 45 minutes before the excruciating finish of Houston’s walk-off) were no doubt certain, early in the evening, that Clayton Kershaw and an early four-run lead were all that was needed for a comfy night of celebration; and not without justification – the Dodgers’ record when Kershaw pitches with four or more runs of support now is 100-1. Ouch. To help change the subject the morning after go a little easier, Josh Molina’s wrapper on the debate is here. KEYT's own news report is here. Winners and Losers coming in a bit. PIK UP PRVS: The one and only televised debate of the Santa Barbara mayor’s race is scheduled to start at 7 p.m. tonight, just over an hour after first pitch of Game 5 of the World Series. This means that, oh say, 12 or 13 honorable and virtuous citizens, who otherwise would surely tune in to the last, best chance to see the five candidates in the most wide-open mayoral campaign this decade, might be drawn away by the once-a-century spectacle of the Dodgers in the Series. What’s a voter to do? Here are five key takeaways about the Series vs. Debate debate: 1) The Series features only one star left-hander, the Dodgers' preeminent pitcher Clayton Kershaw. The debate, however, features three of the biggest lefties in Santa Barbara, in the persons of Hal Conklin, Cathy Murillo and Bendy White. No contest. 2) The big controversy in the Series so far is that a Houston Astros player made a racially insentive gesture insulting the Japanese heritage of Dodgers pitcher Yu Darvish. Yet the debate features council member Frank Hotchkiss, author of an infamous opinion piece in a local newspaper, arguing the internment of 120,000 Japanese-Americans during World War II had little to do with racism. Point: debate. 3) The Dodgers are successful for one plain and simple reason: their owners have and spend more money than anyone else in baseball. The debate features wealthy retired CEO Angel Martinez, whose spending on the mayor’s race, more than a quarter-million dollars to date, is all but certain to shatter records. Watching him perform is a once-a-lifetime opportunity – you can see rich athletes cavort anytime. 4) The last time KEYT held a live debate, during last year’s campaign for Congress, strong winds nearly blew the candidates off the station’s back patio. There’s not much wind in the forecast for tonight but even so, it's tough to pass up the possibility of witnessing a stray gust sweep five politicians into the abyss. 5) This is why they invented DVR. Noozhawk has a full advancer with debate details here. See you at 7 p.m. Play ball. JR

Retired CEO Angel Martinez has raised more than $300,000 for his bid for mayor, as he and council member Cathy Murillo each have more than $50K in the bank to start the campaign’s home stretch, new finance filings show. The latest contribution and expenditure reports electronically filed with the city, for the fundraising period Sept. 24-Oct. 21, show these campaign-to-date dollar figures for the candidates: Candidate $'s Raised $'s Spent Cash on hand 10-21 Cathy Murillo 162,920 119,795 64,966* Angel Martinez 304,940 251,662 53,278 Bendy White 107,615 62,572 45,819 Frank Hotchkiss 77,854 51,523 26,331 Hal Conklin 79,065 83,202 3,697** A key number that political professionals look to is the amount of money a candidate has on to hand to spend in the final days of the race. Although all the candidates will keep fundraising, the current cash balances for Murillo and Martinez mean that they are the two best positioned to sustain substantial paid TV advertising efforts between now and the election. Although White ranked last in the recent Newsmakers Poll, he also has significant available cash and already has paid for considerable advertising on local network affiliates, according to his report. We’ll leave it to other local journalists, who actually get paid to report on this stuff, to provide more details. Meanwhile you can review all the reports by noodling around on the city's election page, starting with this portal. *Cathy's cash on hand includes $21+K she raised in December, 2016. **Seeking arithmetic clarification from Hal on why he doesn't show a negative balance. Will advise. What's next. The new filings are the penultimate campaign finance reports for the mayoral campaign. The next report is due Nov. 4. As every school child knows, the schedule leaves a rather gaping loophole in the campaign disclosure calendar: Reports for the final three days of the campaign, Nov. 4-7, are not due until late December. This means that any last-minute donations from individuals or special interests that candidates feel like voters, you know, are better off not knowing about, will not be disclosed until long after the election is over. Caveat emptor. Latest vote update: Update Saturday Oct. 28, 12:06 p.m. 8240 mail ballots received by city. Of those: 4265 are from Democrats. 2131 are from Republicans. 1844 are from decline-to-state independents or third party voters. Pick up previous: The last Santa Barbara mayor’s race without an incumbent running was in 2009, when Helene Schneider beat Dale Francisco, with a major assist from Steve Cushman. It was a wide-open affair that generated a lot of interest, and drew ballots from 23,167 voters, for a turnout of 49.59 percent. This year's five-way might surpass that turnout.. With 10 days left before the election, the city as of yesterday already had received 7,570 ballots – about one-third as the total cast eight years ago - according to Political Data, Inc.. Of these, 3,907 were Democrats, 1,977 Republicans and 1,686 decline-to-state independents or third parties. Discuss. Frank on Fox. Unless you’re a fan of the Fox News Channel on cable, chances are you haven’t seen a TV ad from mayor’s race front-runner Hotchkiss. While Murillo, Martinez and White have purchased tens of thousands of dollars in advertising time among network affiliates with general interest audiences in Santa Barbara – KEYT, KCOY, KKFX and KSBY – Hotchkiss is limiting his TV advertising to cable. On Fox News, especially, he can narrowcast to his base of Republican voters, and avoid wasting money by sending his message more broadly, to many voters more likely to disagree with him. A deconstruction of the cable ad he’s running shows how he packs a huge amount of information - visual, written, emotional - on issues of high interest to conservatives: taxes, immigration, crime, panhandlers and, wait for it... the war on Christmas.. For those who rarely venture outside the Friendly Confines of MSNBC (Hello Rachel and Chris!) to visit the home of Hannity and Tucker Carlson, here’s an annotated look at Frank’s ad, which you can find on his Facebook page here. Words: Frank Hotchkiss is the right choice for Santa Barbara. (editor's note: don't miss that "right"). (Image: Frank in blue blazer shaking hands in front of Courthouse). Words: Frank is the only mayoral candidate opposing Measure C, the largest tax increase in Santa Barbara history, which can be spent on anything and lasts forever. (Images: Brief black and white aerial shot of the city, covered with all caps words: OPPOSES MEASURE C THE LARGEST TAX INCREASE IN SANTA BARBARA HISTORY CAN BE SPENT ON ANYTHING LASTS FOREVER). Words: Frank is also the only candidate to oppose sanctuary city status for illegal immigrants who commit felonies here. (Images: Frank stands in front of Mission speaking to a woman with dark hair. Cut to all caps: ILLEGAL IMMIGRANT FELONS Background: 1) police lights flashing at night and 2) handcuffed man from behind), Words: As a council member Frank has been a leading voice for putting more cops on the street. (Images: Frank strides down City Hall steps, cut to all caps: MORE COPS ON THE STREET background: more police lights at night). Words: Plus, limiting aggressive panhandling downtown. (Image: Unidentified male, no head nor legs showing, holds all-caps sign at chest: LIMITING AGGRESSIVE PANHANDLING DOWNTOWN). Words: And he even saved the State Street Christmas Tree. (Image: Lights twinkling on holiday tree. Cut to Frank in polo shirt and jacket). The End. Lest we forget those brave Americans on Fox who battled against the War on Christmas. Frank’s Book Club Update. Widely varying reactions to our publication of excerpts of the Hotchkiss potboiler, “Playing with Fire” A high-profile older gent and local celebrity forwards this view: "You realize what you've done - you've elected a man of letters to be mayor!" An equally prominent, and considerably younger, woman, however, offered this one word review: "ewww." Free prediction: more women than men will vote by Nov. 7. JR Images: A barrel of cash; Reminder note; Don't forget to vote!; Frank Hotchkiss as Kellog in TV series "Mission Impossible, 1971; Newsmakers fainting couch. Email us news tips at newsmakerswithjr@gmail.com or comment on our stories on our Facebook page - SB City Desk. Thanks for reading.

Aaron Solis was at Wrigley Field, watching the Dodgers clinch the National League pennant. Jack Ucciferri had a family emergency. And so, when the date and time came for the “Newsmakers TV” interview with the three candidates from District 6, the only one on set was incumbent council member Gregg Hart. Our one-on-one with Gregg covered not only key issues in the downtown district, but also citywide and regional matters, as well as some purely political discussion - most pointedly whether he’s preparing to run for the Board of Supervisors next year with the expectation that incumbent Janet Wolf will pack it in. For us, the highlight is Hart’s stunning display of top-rank terpsichorean talent, as he leaps, bounds, elevates and tap dances in a sprightly and spirited exhibition to avoid answering a very simple question: will he promise the voters of District 6 he’ll serve a full four-year term on council? Spoiler alert: he won’t.

In a day of whirlwind, punch-and-counter punch endorsements, Democratic Assemblymember Monique Limon hours ago changed political course, suddenly issuing a formal statement of support for Cathy Murillo in the Santa Barbara mayor's race. “After assessing the political landscape I’ve decided to endorse Cathy Murillo," Limon said, in a release that came from the Murillo campaign. "The decision does not come lightly as there are a number of respected community leaders in the race but it is done knowing Cathy shares important values that will drive policy decisions for the future of Santa Barbara,” Coming from Santa Barbara's most high-energy politician, it wasn't exactly the most ringing and wholehearted endorsement in the history of American politics. That's no surprise, however, given that Monique, in wading into the mayor's race, did exactly what she said she had no plans to do just 48 hours earlier. On Monday, noting that Murillo Democratic rivals Hal Conklin and Bendy White both have supported her previously, Limon told Newsmakers that, “It’s hard to come out against someone who’s supported you. As of now, I’m not jumping in." As of then, indeed. Monique's move was (let us pray) the final shoe to drop on a day when three high-profile, political influencers tugged at the loyalties of the liberal precincts of local politics. The whiplash of successive endorsements in the space of six hours, - Rep. Salud Carbajal (Murillo) for breakfast; the Santa Barbara Independent (Hal Conklin) at lunch and Limon (Murillo) in time for supper - left unsettled the issue of who on the left has the best chance and most cred to shut down the upset bid of Republican Frank Hotchkiss to become the next mayor. The Indy's pick of Conklin was something of a surprise, and gave a jolt of energy to a campaign that has been adrift. The Salud and Monique pronouncements for Cathy are notable, but not altogether unexpected; neither of them would have been elected without the strong organizational efforts of the local Democratic party, and their chits just got called in. Three quick takeaways as the dust begins to settle: Frank won the day. In the broadest strokes, the political dynamic of the race today is one Republican against two Democrats, advantage Hotchkiss. He can double down on the clear message to his base that he is the only conservative who can block the Liberal Hordes Howling at the city gates; neither Murillo nor Conklin can make the reverse case - that only they can prevent a Trumpista Tea Party Takeover in the birthplace of the environmental movement - as cleanly. The Indy endorsement is huge for Hal and, coupled with the backing of the Capps family, boosts him upward into what potentially could settle into a three-way contest; Murillo's big-name endorsements tactically took some juice out of Hal's big day, but in the end the backing of two establishment politicians may mean more to insiders and less to folks with Actual Lives, than does the blessing of an alternative paper they already trust for weekly tips on eating, drinking and the band lineup at Soho. Young Latino leaders. The symbolic image of Carbajal and Limon standing with Murillo sends a powerful message about political fault lines of ethnicity, age and income that seldom have been addressed in the race for mayor. In this off-year election, the universe of voters is expected to be whiter, older, wealthier and more Republican than the city as a whole; Latinos and Hispanics are likely to represent only a small sliver of voters on Nov. 7, but they constitute more than one-third of the city's population; and are all but certain to become more crucial in future elections. Angel and Bendy are running out of time. Standings, sample sizes and margins of error aside, the Newsmakers Poll shook up the campaign for mayor by injecting a blast of urgency into progressives who were surprised and feel threatened by Frank's strong showing. Angel Martinez's 'message of executive experience has resonated among some business types and Funk Zone millennials and Bendy remains the clearest voice for neighborhood preservation. But all of a sudden, it's Survivor Time and undecideds are starting to kick contestants off the island, so Martinez and White need to start punching through in a way they have not yet done. Ugg update. Martinez resigned his seat on the board of directors of Deckers Outdoor Corp. a few days ago, effectively severing his last formal connection to the Goleta-based company he led as CEO and President for years. We were the first local news organization to report last month that Martinez had given up his post as Chairman of the Board of Deckers amid an outbreak of corporate warfare that involved an attack on him and the incumbent management by Marcato Capital Management, a hedge fund investor in the company. Now Marcato has sued Deckers over the makeup of the board, which you can read all about here, a strategic move that led Martinez to split. Here's what he answered via email when we asked him about the latest news. "The only significance is that my campaign is heating up and we are going into high gear. And given all the effort currently required to be an effective Board member, in light of the (investor) activist issues, I don’t feel it’s appropriate to stand for renomination, given that I won’t be able to devote 100% of my focus either that or the campaign if I try to do both. My original plan, btw, was to resign from the Deckers board at the end of May. But this new line of work I’ve been engaging in is taking a great deal more time than I anticipated!" JR (A note to subscribers: We updated posts several times today in an effort to keep up with breaking developments as they happened. In the process, we may have inadvertently resent you emails you'd received earlier. Apologies for duplications). Images: Cathy Murillo; Frank Hotchkiss; Monique Limon; Angel Martinez. Email us news tips at newsmakerswithjr@gmail.com or comment on our stories on our Facebook page - SB City Desk. Thanks for reading.

Updated update. This post has been changed severl times to reflect the latest developments. Apologies to subscribers who may have received duplicate emails. Updated 12:09 p.m. Rep. Salud Carbajal endorsed City Council member Cathy Murillo for mayor on Wednesday, the first prominent Democrat who had previously rested on the sidelines to jump abruptly into the tangle of three party candidates now trailing Republican Frank Hotchkiss. As recently as three weeks ago, Carbajal said that he had no plans to get involved in the mayor's race (or with Measure C, the sales tax increase on which he's taken a pass for fear of getting clobbered with it by Republicans in next year's mid-term). As we reported Monday, however, pressure to endorse the party-backed Murillo has grown intense on previously uncommitted elected officials, since Newsmakers published its poll showing Hotchkiss the nominal leader in a five-person field including the Democratic trio of Murillo, Hal Conklin and Bendy White. One big connection between Carbajal and Murillo: they share the same top-rank campaign consultant, Mollie Culver. As a tactical matter, Culver's success in getting Salud's nod to Cathy made public several hours before the Independent delivered its coveted endorsement to mayoral rival Hal Conklin was a nice piece of one-upsmanship that stepped on Hal's story. Here's the nice words about Cathy that Salud dispatched from Washington: "As City Councilmember, Cathy Murillo has served as a leader in our community and a strong ally in the fight to protect our environment, create economic opportunities for working families, and improve public safety. She is an effective advocate and unifier for our many distinct Santa Barbara neighborhoods. I am pleased to support Cathy for Mayor."

The Independent just posted its much-anticipated endorsement for mayor on the newspaper's website, declaring that after much deliberation, their choice is...wait for it...Hal Conklin. That Editor-in-Chief and Independent co-founder Marianne Partridge, who makes the call on these matters, performed and oversaw "much research and interviewing" before picking Hal, as the editorial states, is not a matter than can be argued: the damn endorsement is 1,726 words long. It's worth a read in full, not only as a hurrah for Hal, but also as a serious analysis of the mayor's race. No doubt a mind meld between Marianne and Nick Welsh, executive editor and staff Boswell, it examines the Democratic internecine warfare underpinning the race. the pluses and minuses of Cathy Murillo and Bendy White, discusses the "bright shiny object" of newcomer Angel Martinez and expresses "an abiding alarm" that Republican Frank Hotchkiss might win. From the endorsement: Conklin has the experience, knowledge, skill base, and temperament needed not only to run meetings but also to use the mayoral position as a bully pulpit. He is a bit of a preacher. As mayor, of course, he would be only one of seven votes. But the mayor sets the agenda, and a good mayor cobbles together the votes necessary for the City Council ​— ​no matter how fractious ​— ​to move forward. We shall see.

Now that Frank Hotchkiss has become the front-runner in the mayor’s race, Santa Barbara voters who are newly in search of insight into the character, values and worldview of their potential next leader are turning for clues to his literary art. Word is, undecideds in households all across town are searching out copies of "Playing with Fire: A New York Novel" (on Amazon here), the most recent creation in the Hotchkiss oeuvre, a self-published 2016 novel of love, betrayal, steamy sex, illness, death, loss, steamy sex, redemption and steamy sex. The main character of Frank’s book is a middle-aged, high-end advertising executive whom Hotchkiss (by coincidence a former advertising executive) calls “Benno Strong.” Benno falls hard for an exotic younger woman named Natalia Tsukarova (“It’s Russian. You won’t be required to spell it,” Natalia tells Benno in Chapter 1). Benno’s first glimpse of his future mistress goes this way : “Jet-black hair fell over a lipstick red dress cut just above the knee. He saw her legs outlined beneath the tight wool dress. Her tan calf muscles rippled over patent red leather heels as she stood with her legs close together. He couldn’t look at her, and walked away when she tried to introduce herself. Her delicate perfume made him to struggle to breathe.” Complications ensue. But enough about me, what do you think of my book? Back in August, during our Newsmakers TV interview, I read that excerpt on air, and asked Frank if his novel was autobiographical. Here’s what he said: “Good question. No, although I’ve certainly seen ladies that beautiful. But I’ll tell a little bit of the story. A guy your age, my age, inadvertently although happily married, falls in love with a wonderfully striking young woman but knows right away that it’s stupid, he shouldn’t do it, shouldn’t pursue it, he’s not gonna do that, they’ll just be friends and that’s when, you know, he discovers he’s playing with fire.” Just friends, indeed. Newsmakers today - Oprah's Book Club tomorrow? A full service multi-platform site, Newsmakers is proud to announce that “Playing with Fire” has been chosen by our Department of Erudite Book Learning and Danielle Steel Knockoffs as the inaugural selection of the Newsmakers Book Club. Over the next 13 days until the Nov. 7 election, we’ll be poring over Frank’s newest opus, and we invite and encourage our readers to find a copy and read along with us – then send in your favorite Hotchkiss passage, which could be featured on our Book Club Report, along with your name, mug shot and mini-review. Lots of fun for the whole family! Well, maybe not the whole family, but you get the idea. Tonight’s assignment. By Chapter 4, the narrative arc of “Playing with Fire” has moved quickly: With Benno’s wife away, our hero finds himself in Natalia’s apartment, where the copious powers of the Hotchkiss literary imagination are unleashed. Or unloosed. Or something: "When he pulled back, she came around and said, 'Come here,' again, got up from the couch and headed for the bedroom, pulling off her jacket and her turtleneck as she went. Her bare back was flawless. By the time he got his shirt off, she had stripped naked and was waiting for him to do likewise. "This time she controlled herself to let him catch up, which he did, before she took off again like a mare on a run in the field, taunting him to follow, which he did, and then waiting for him to enter, which he did, and then not waiting for him at all anymore, just bucking and kicking and coming and going and flying and crying and coming and coming and coming. Which he did, also." There were no injuries. Um, discuss. Or not. JR Images: Cover of "Playing with Fire" by Frank Hotchkiss; Hotchkiss (Paul Wellman, SB Independent); Oprah and a selection of her Book Club (AP/Globe and Mail); Fainting Couch (SpeaktoPower.org). Email us news tips at newsmakerswithjr@gmail.com or comment on our stories on our Facebook page - SB City Desk. Thanks for reading.

Democratic insiders, startled to learn that Republican Frank Hotchkiss is the nominal leader in the mayor’s race, grappled on Monday with the perplexing political calculus concocted by three candidates of their party campaigning for the job. “Your poll has generated a lot of calls and emails,” Democratic Assembly member Monique Limon told Newsmakers, in a serendipitous chat at Peet's. Limon, who so far has been neutral in the campaign, said that she has been urged to endorse in the race since Sunday morning, when Newsmakers published a survey of registered likely voters that shows Hotchkiss running first in the five-candidate field. The 19-to-16 percent lead Hotchkiss holds over fellow council member Cathy Murillo, the Democratic Party candidate, is statistically insignificant, but politically volatile. Hal Conklin and Bendy White, both Democrats, trail the two leaders and some Democratic activists and apparatchiks blame them for opening the door to a possible conservative victory. Amid the persuasive efforts being brought to bear, Monique noted that not only Cathy, but also Hal and Bendy, have stood with her in her previous campaigns. “It’s hard to come out against someone who’s supported you,” Limon said. “As of now, I’m not jumping in.” Who are the undecided? As a political matter, Limon’s choose-between-your-children dilemma is being duplicated all over town. With Conklin and White offering longer-running variations of her progressive politics, our survey shows that Murillo has not succeeded in unifying Democratic voters, despite the party endorsement, for reasons that may range from policy to personality. The Newsmakers Poll represents a snapshot in time of the race, and is not predictive of the outcome. That will be shaped by the performances, messaging, marketing and media coverage of the candidates in the final two weeks. With a margin of error of plus or minus five points, it shows the candidates ranked this way: Candidate Percent Frank Hotchkiss 19 Cathy Murillo 16 Hal Conklin 10 Angel Martinez 9 Bendy White 6 Undecided 40 The key number is the 40 percent undecided. Our poll takers interviewed 400 registered voters, who have a history of casting ballots in citywide elections, and who said they already have, or are likely, to take part in the Nov. 7 election. This means that the 40 percent undecided bloc includes 132 survey respondents. As a matter of methodology, sub-samples of that sub-sample are too small to be statistically significant, so it is imprudent to draw sweeping conclusions about the demographics or attitudes of the group. That said (and because some readers asked) we note for the record that: 78 of the undecideds are Democrats (59 percent); 25 are Republicans (19 percent); 21 are registered decline-to-state independents (16 percent); and 8 are registered third party (6 percent). If these proportions are generally reflected in the electorate as a whole, a reasonable man might infer that the bulk of the undecided are Democrats. Within that context, local party leaders have begun imploring those who may be considering Conklin or White to rally behind Murillo. “With two weeks remaining in this election, it is time for the voters and Democratic leaders of our city to unite around the only Democratic candidate who can defeat Frank Hotchkiss,” Gail Teton-Landis, chair of the Santa Barbara County Democratic Party said in a statement that was e-blasted around town. “It is now time for all Democrats to unify around Cathy Murillo, who is the only viable Democratic candidate in the race,” her statement added. In a telephone interview, Gail said that she was “speaking to voters” with her plea, not calling for Conklin or White to quit and throw support to Cathy (which would be a neat trick in any case, given that mail-in ballots with their names on them went out on Oct. 9). “Certainly it’s a problem that three Democrats are running, but I’m just trying to get voters united,” she said. “It’s unimaginable that we’ll wake up on Wednesday morning (after the election) and find this progressive, environmental city has elected a climate change denier as its mayor.” More fun with numbers. The Angel Martinez camp is applying its own spin to our poll, arguing that the large undecided group is made up primarily of voters unhappy with the state and direction of the city. As Josh Molina reported at Noozhawk: Brian Robinson, Martinez’s campaign manager, suggested that many of the undecided voters will turn toward his candidate because they are turned off by the incumbents, all of them veteran council members. “A majority of undecided voters think the city is on the wrong track,” he said. “Why would you vote for an incumbent if you thought the city was on the wrong track? We knew there were a lot of undecided voters. We see them breaking for us.” We’re not sure what Angel’s internal polls show, but that’s not what data drawn from our undecided group suggests. We broke out what the undecided group said, when asked if the city is on the right track or wrong track. This is what we found: Santa Barbara is on: Percent Right Track 49 Wrong Track 29 Don’t know 22 This mirrored the results from asking the question of the entire sample: Santa Barbara is on: Percent Right Track 49 Wrong Track 35 Don’t know 16 So there’s that. JR Images: Assembly Member Monique Limon; Frank Hotchkiss (Paul Wellman, Santa Barbara Independent); Gail Teton-Landis (Democratic Women of Santa Barbara County); Angel Martinez. Email us news tips at newsmakerswithjr@gmail.com or comment on our stories on our Facebook page - SB City Desk. Thanks for reading.

Just over two weeks before the election, City Council members Frank Hotchkiss and Cathy Murillo are statistically tied for the lead in the crowded Santa Barbara mayor’s race – but by far the largest portion of voters remains undecided. That is the bottom line of the Newsmakers Poll, the first independent and professionally produced statistical survey of voters to be published in advance of the Nov. 7 city election. The poll, designed and funded by the California politics website Calbuzz and conducted for us by Validity Research, is based on telephone interviews with a random sample of 400 registered voters with a recent history of voting who said they already have, or will, cast ballots in the all-mail election. This is where the candidates stand, according to survey interviews carried out Oct. 18 and 19. The findings have a statistical margin of error of plus or minus 5 percent at the 95% confidence level. Candidate Percent Frank Hotchkiss 19 Cathy Murillo 16 Hal Conklin 10 Angel Martinez 9 Bendy White 6 Undecided 40 The four-in-10 undecided factor means the race remains wide open, raising the stakes for messaging, media coverage and the performances of the candidates, as likely voters make up their minds in the next two weeks. Full analysis below. The tax vote At first glance, the large undecided vote might suggest that voters are not paying much attention to the election, despite hundreds of thousands of dollars in campaign advertising and considerable news coverage to date. However, that notion is disproved by the fact that a large majority of voters know about Measure C, expressing considerable certainty about their intentions on the city council-sponsored ballot initiative to raise the sales tax by one cent. In putting the tax increase on the ballot, the council majority said the $22 million a year to be raised would be targeted for street repair and other infrastructure, although the money could be spent on other programs (our earlier, detailed look at Measure C is here). When asked about how they plan to vote on Measure C, respondents in the survey answered this way: Vote on Measure C Percent Yes 54 No 32 Undecided 14 What poll shows about the mayor’s race Here are five takeaways about the mayoral poll: 1-Party time. Municipal elections technically are non-partisan affairs -- contests in which potholes and parking have higher priority than political parties. As a practical matter, however, party registration appears to be extremely important in this race. It is not surprising that Hotchkiss and Murillo are running at the top, because they have the two clearest bases of political support this year: the local Republican and Democratic parties. Although fewer than one-in-five voters in the city of Santa Barbara are registered with the GOP, Hotchkiss is the only Republican and the only candidate with a conservative track record at City Hall who is running. Martinez has made some in-roads into Frank’s constituency by winning support from key business organizations, but Hotchkiss appears, at this point, to be capturing the bulk of the conservative vote and overcoming Angel’s efforts to inspire widespread defections on the right (for details, see our earlier piece, "Can a Republican Be Elected SB's Mayor?"). On the Democratic side, Murillo won the endorsement of the local party last spring. With fellow Democrats Hal Conklin and Bendy White challenging her for liberal votes, however, she has thus far failed to consolidate Democratic support. The key party endorsement and her fundraising prowess, however, have helped her assemble the most robust field organization of any candidate – volunteers to walk precincts and make phone calls, and a well-ordered mail-in ballot strategy – potentially a critical tactical advantage in a retail politics campaign. Ideologically, Murillo also is the most liberal of the Democratic trio, meaning she may be positioned to attract the support of the party’s most active and engaged voters as the campaign moves into its final days. 2-Who’s voting? As of Friday, 4,272 ballots had already been returned, according to Political Data Inc., the voting data firm used by campaign professionals throughout the state. Of these 2,102 are Democratic, 1,249 Republican and the rest are from decline-to-state independents and those registered with third parties. This suggests considerable interest in the election. Turnout in off year city elections is often low, but these early numbers suggest turnout may well exceed the 38.30 percent of voters who cast ballots in the last mayoral contest in 2013. The relatively large number of Republican ballots is both good news and bad news for Hotchkiss. While many members of the GOP are voting - the party's proportion of ballots returned to date is significantly higher than their citywide registration number - it is likely that far more Democratic than Republican votes remain to be cast. This may give some sustenance to the Murillo camp but it also provides hope to Conklin and, to a lesser extent, White. With many voters who favor their brands of liberal politics, they can envision plausible scenarios for victory. 3-The push question. The Newsmakers Poll included an extra question for voters who initially said they did not know who they would vote for: “If you HAD to say, which candidate are you leaning toward?” Although the number of voters who then selected a candidate – 38 - is too small to be statistically significant, the answers are of interest, at least to political junkies. Of the 38, 13 said they would vote for Martinez, suggesting that a fair number of undecideds still see him as a potential mayor; a total of 20 said they’d go for one of the liberal Democrats -- 10 for Murillo, 9 for Conklin and 1 for White -- but only 5 said they would favor Hotchkiss, suggesting that the late deciding vote may not break in his favor. 4-Which way S.B.? In an effort to understand better how likely voters feel about the future of their city as they make their picks, Newsmakers also asked a standard political polling question – do you believe your city is on the right track or the wrong track? Santa Barbara is on: Percent Right Track 49 Wrong Track 35 Don’t know 16 The result showing voters relatively satisfied suggests some weakness in the central argument advanced by Martinez, the retired CEO who has spent more money on the race than any of the better-known city politicians. In arguing that the city needs to be shaken up, Martinez has painted a dim, at times almost desultory, picture of Santa Barbara, focusing on the economic difficulties for younger workers who want to live here, and the profusion of street people and the decline of retail on State Street. 5-Debate and endorsements. The candidates already have appeared together in a number of forums, but much attention now will focus on the live debate sponsored by KEYT on Sunday, Oct. 29. It will be not only the sole televised debate of the contest, but also the last best chance for voters to see the candidates on the same stage. In a race where big endorsements have been scattered – despite the parties’ approval for Murillo and Hotchkiss, former Rep. Lois Capps backs Conklin, Mayor Helene Schneider supports White and the Chamber of Commerce is behind Martinez – it’s also significant that neither the police officers or firefighters associations, which normally provide the most important and impactful local endorsements, chose to back a candidate for mayor. The last big endorsement out there belongs to the Santa Barbara Independent, many of whose readers look to the liberal newspaper for guidance in local politics. The Indy will announce its pick for mayor in next week’s edition, which publishes Oct. 26. By the numbers. The Newsmakers Poll was designed in partnership with Calbuzz.com, the California politics website co-founded and operated by Jerry Roberts and Phil Trounstine, a veteran political journalist who also was founder and director of the Survey and Policy Research Institute at San Jose State University from 2001-09. Validity Research conducted the phone interviews. The survey sample of 400 voters was drawn from Santa Barbara’s registered voter roll and included only those who cast ballots in the most recent citywide election, plus those who have since registered to vote. The survey’s stratified random sample was designed to reflect the demographics of likely voters. Respondents were contacted via landline or cell phone last Wednesday and Thursday evenings. JR Images: Last image: Jerry Roberts and Phil Trounstine/Calbuzz. Email us news tips at newsmakerswithjr@gmail.com or comment on our stories on our Facebook page - SB City Desk. Thanks for reading.

On Sunday morning, we’ll post the results of the Newsmakers Poll, the first independent, professionally produced, statistical survey of the five-way contest for Santa Barbara mayor. The poll also will show where things stand on Measure C, the proposed one-cent sales tax increase, as well disclose whether voters think Santa Barbara is headed in the right or wrong direction. We'll keep you in suspense for now, except to say there are some surprises in the numbers. Check back around 9 a.m. for our full report on the poll.